Heaps Estrin's Blog

The start of a new year always brings a sense of reset – fresh starts, good intentions, and a moment to take stock of where things stand and where they may be headed. In real estate, that instinct is particularly strong right now, as many buyers and sellers look to 2026 hoping for clarity. What we’re seeing instead is something a little less dramatic but arguably more important: stability.

Heading into the year, we had anticipated a relatively steady market – and for the most part, that’s what we’re seeing. While global and geo-political factors (including the unfolding situation in Venezuela) will need time to fully play out before we can gauge broader economic impacts, locally the Toronto market has settled into what now feels like a new norm. We don’t expect meaningful shifts in the near term.

The latest figures indicate that prices are down roughly 25% below peak, creating opportunity – particularly for first-time buyers and move-up buyers, who are in a stronger position than they have been in years. Seasonality has become less pronounced, meaning buyers and sellers are no longer trying to “time” the market in the traditional sense. Instead, decisions are increasingly driven by real life – growing families, downsizing, relocations, renovations, and transitions that happen regardless of headlines.

One development worth watching closely is the new land transfer tax on properties over $3 million, set to take effect April 1, 2026. We expect this to encourage an earlier start to the Spring market, as buyers look to purchase and close ahead of the change. Creative solutions – including leasebacks – are already being discussed, allowing buyers to secure pricing and tax advantages while giving sellers flexibility around their next move.

On the financing side, we’re hearing an interesting signal: mortgage specialists we work with are seeing more pre-approval requests than usual, suggesting buyers are out there and quietly preparing. While interest rates trended downward last year, that pattern isn’t expected to continue consistently in 2026, with some experts even predicting potential increases later in the year. In other words, this is not a market to wait out – it’s a market to prepare for. Locking in a pre-approval now offers both clarity and optionality.

In complex markets like this one, alignment with experienced advisors matters more than ever. Strategy, pricing, and timing are nuanced, and opportunities tend to favour those who are informed, prepared, and decisive.

As always, we’re here to talk through what this moment means for you – whether you’re planning a move this year, next year, or simply want to understand your options. New year, renewed perspective – and plenty of opportunity for those ready to lean in.

Warmly,

Central Toronto Market Spotlight
December activity in Central Toronto points to a market that is regaining momentum, even as pricing continues to adjust. Overall sales were up nearly 18% year over year, driven largely by increased detached and condo activity, while inventory levels remained relatively stable.

Detached sales rose sharply, with transactions up 60% year over year, and average days on market dropping significantly – a clear sign that well-priced homes are finding their buyers. Prices remain down from peak levels, reflecting the broader recalibration we’ve seen across the market, but the pace of sales suggests renewed confidence among buyers.

When looking at the big picture, Central Toronto continues to show resilience: steady demand in an environment that rewards disciplined pricing, preparation and thoughtful strategy.

West Toronto Market Spotlight
December saw a notable increase in overall sales activity in the west end, up nearly 22% year over year, alongside a rise in new and active listings. This combination signals a market offering more choice for buyers, while still requiring careful pricing from sellers.

Detached homes saw sales volumes climb more than 36%, though average prices declined year over year and days on market increased – underscoring the importance of alignment between pricing and buyer expectations. Semi-detached homes experienced modestly fewer sales, but continued to trade close to list price, reflecting steady underlying demand.

Overall, West Toronto remains an opportunity-rich environment, especially for prepared buyers. For sellers, success continues to hinge on strategy, positioning, and a clear understanding of today’s market dynamics.

25 North Drive
Leave the city in the city. Set behind gates on one of Toronto’s most prestigious streets, 25 North Drive is a rare architectural achievement,
reimagined by internationally acclaimed Reflect Architecture. Manicured gardens, a ravine backdrop, pool and private tennis court surround the home making it perfect for a lifestyle defined by privacy, presence, and permanence.

MLS: W12571062
Price: $12,995,000
Beds / Baths: 5 + 7

Reach out today for more information or to schedule your own private tour.

Virtual Tour | Learn More

Toronto Interior Design Show Giveaway
January 22-25, 2026

For those who love interior design as much as we do, we're giving away tickets to this month's Interior Design Show at the Metro Toronto Convention Centre. Discover new products, incredible designers, and innovative concepts shaping the future of design.

Follow us on Instagram for our ticket giveaway details this week.

Contests not your thing? That is OK. In partnership with IDS we are also offering 20% off the purchase of your ticket.

Email us for more details.

Puppies and Pilates
243 Rose Park Drive | January 27 | 1:00PM - 3:00PM

Join us for a Puppies and Pilates event, designed to lift your spirits and focus on finding a little joy in movement. January can often feel a little grey, so we have decided to host this restorative event at beautiful 243 Rose Park Drive. Mats will be provided, all you need to bring is yourself. Whether you’re coming for the pilates, the puppies or simply a moment to breathe, we look forward to seeing you there.

Stretch, Strengthen, Snuggle Puppies!

RSVP

Heaps Estrin Family Skate
Leaside Gardens | 1073 Millwood Rd
February 7 | 5:15PM - 7:15PM
Join us for a Family Skate at Leaside Gardens. This all-ages event will bring together friends, families and neighbours alike. We’ll have complimentary hot chocolate and coffee on hand to keep you warm, and a photo booth to capture the fun.

In the spirit of safety, we kindly ask that children 12 and under wear helmets and be supervised by an adult.

See you on the ice!