Heaps Estrin's Blog

February began, as usual, with Groundhog Day – and much like the cult classic movie, this month’s TRREB update feels a little like déjà vu. The storyline remains familiar: cautious consumers, elevated inventory, and a market finding its footing rather than sprinting ahead.

TRREB’s 2026 Outlook points to stability more than spectacle. Sales for the year are expected to land between 60,000 and 70,000 transactions, similar to 2025, with the average GTA price hovering around the $1-million mark. Improved affordability is here, but confidence is still catching up. January’s figures reflected that hesitation – sales were down year over year and prices softened modestly – yet beneath those numbers we’re seeing important signs of life.

The most positive shift toward recovery in the months ahead may very well come from the return of the first-time buyer. Anecdotally, our team is already seeing multiple offers again in entry-level segments. Many people who have spent years renting are doing the math differently now: when monthly rents approach $3,000 or $4,000, ownership starts to feel less like a dream and more like a practical next step. TRREB’s research suggests nearly half of 2026 purchasers will be first-timers, and that group could well be the engine of recovery.

Move-up and discretionary buyers, on the other hand, are expected to take a longer pause. Economic and geopolitical uncertainty is making optional moves feel less urgent. The consensus – and our own expectation – is that the latter half of the year may bring firmer pricing as confidence rebuilds and pent-up demand finally meets the market.

What the headlines often miss, however, is that the Toronto region is not one market. Neighbourhoods across the city are performing very differently from their suburban counterparts, and even within Toronto the experience varies block by block. Downtown condos tell one story, while established family pockets tell another. In markets like this, opportunity lives in the micro – in understanding where value has already adjusted and where competition is quietly returning.

Whether you’re a first-time buyer exploring your options, a move-up buyer planning ahead, or simply watching from the sidelines, thoughtful strategy matters more than ever. Our job is to help you see past the headlines and into the real opportunities unfolding right now.

If you’d like a neighbourhood-specific snapshot or to discuss strategy that makes the most of this market, not last year’s, please reach out. We’re always here to help.

Warmly,

P.S. As our footprint continues to grow, we’ve added focused insights on East Toronto beginning with this issue, alongside our Central and West updates.

260 St. Leonards Avenue

Tucked away in Lawrence Park, 260 St. Leonards Avenue is a Georgian-inspired home blending classic architecture with modern style across 6,000 square feet and three levels.

Inside, the atmosphere is welcoming and bright, with sunlight highlighting custom millwork throughout. A private office offers the perfect setting for focused work, while the living room — anchored by a wood-burning fireplace — is made for cozy evenings. The dining room, featuring stained glass windows and custom wainscotting, overlooks the living room and creates an elegant setting for entertaining.

At the heart of the home is the kitchen, complete with a marble-topped island, custom cabinetry, and high-end appliances. Sunlight fills the breakfast nook, and the family room — with a gas fireplace and a wall of windows — blends seamlessly with the outdoors. French doors open to a deck perfect for barbecues, leading to a stone patio with a gas fireplace surrounded by lush gardens for total privacy. This backyard is designed for gatherings, alfresco dinners, and unforgettable summer nights.

Practical spaces receive equal attention, including a designer powder room, main-floor laundry with built-in storage, and a bar area ideal for entertaining.

Upstairs, the primary suite features vaulted ceilings, a custom dressing room, and a spa-like ensuite with a waterfall shower and dual marble vanities. Three additional bedrooms are sunlit and spacious, each with custom double closets.

The lower level is designed for both relaxation and recreation, offering a recreation room with fireplace, gym, guest or nanny suite with ensuite bath, flexible living space, direct garage access, and a climate-controlled wine cellar.

The location is unbeatable. Tree-lined St. Leonards Avenue provides easy access to trails, top private schools, and the Granite Club.

This is a home that balances sophistication with everyday comfort — and room to grow.

MLS: C12686372
Price: $5,000,000
Beds / Baths: 4+2 / 6

Reach out today for more information or to schedule your private tour.

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Heaps Estrin Insiders enjoy 15% off in-store and online, now through March 9. Code: INSIDER

Galentine’s at The Lobby February 11, 2026 | 6:00 PM - 8:00 PM
The Lobby is hosting a beading workshop led by Judy Carter. Judy, the founder of JUDE, is renowned for her hand-crafted jewelry and ceramics, both of which are built around organic forms, tactile textures and, meaningful storytelling. Create a one-of-a-kind bracelet or necklace using beautiful beads hand selected by Judy, with the option to add her signature charms. Light refreshments and wine will be served.

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Coldest Night of the Year Saturday, February 28, 2026
On February 28, Heaps Estrin will be walking 5k in support of Toronto’s St.Felix Centre as part of the Coldest Night of the Year. Every dollar raised helps support individuals and families in our community experiencing hurt, hunger and homelessness. If you’re able, we would be grateful for your support as we walk for this important cause.

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